The Successor by TGW/Kevin Cantrell

[Harvonsgard]

Congrats on the winner then, won't be me.

[hsbc]

I'll be interested to see what the 48-hours-left bump looks like on this campaign

[brownsl]

I wonder if there will be a bump up or if it will drop the last couple of days as maybe some backers pull out? I think typically there is a bump up with KS campaigns?

[TheGentlemanWake]

Mondays stock market slip really hurt us. We lost 7k in backing. It’s hard for me, as the project creator, to watch. I know rationally that it has much less to do with the campaign than it does with the current state of the world—but it doesn’t stop me from feeling like we just had really shitty timing. We could have easily been over 300k.

[Harvonsgard]

Doesn't really help to play the coulda/woulda/shoulda game imho. You've had your most funded campaign after a global pandemic and during a worldwide inflation. If you wanna knock yourself for that, feel free to do so but I would look on the bright side of things personally and would be proud for having funded the artistic vision I wanted to create.

[hsbc]

Yeah, you had a massive funding goal and hit it easily, in spite of the economy I repeat myself but I'm just happy these are getting made at all, I really like them

[TheGentlemanWake]

Hey all, yeah I’m completely with you rationally. I know we so far have a total that only 12 or so campaigns have bested. But when I see that our cancelled pledge total is in the 45k range I can’t help but feel like we failed. We tried to make a deck that was undeniably beautiful and worthy of owning. And then maybe went up against the only thing that could defeat it… I broken economy. At least I hope that’s the reason, could the all-up-front model have resulted in massive attrition rates due to lack of continued interest in the campaign?

[Strag]

for me it was really the latter. I only pledged up front to see what else might get added. Once I realised it wasn't going to be enough "value" to me for the total cost of the pledge (around $600) I made the decision to drop.

[rockets455]

things blamed:
economy
stock market
showing all decks early
forum users who convinced tgw to show everything upfront
kickstarter algorithm
not enough engagement in comments
not enough people watching the campaign video

things not blamed:
expensive sarcophagus taking up half the cost of the tier

[TheGentlemanWake]

things blamed:
economy
stock market
showing all decks early
forum users who convinced tgw to show everything upfront
kickstarter algorithm
not enough engagement in comments
not enough people watching the campaign video

things not blamed:
expensive sarcophagus taking up half the cost of the tier

That's absolutely a possibility. Although many cancellations are just 5 deck set or 3 deck sets. NOTHING to do with the sarcophagus. Which honestly has sold 360 of 390 units and been at that level the pretty much the whole campaign.

[Harvonsgard]

Honest answer - as much as I hate giving it - not entirely but yes. It's a known fact that micro transactions and adjusting pledges make a customer spend more than s/he intends. The gains you'll get from this are definitely more than what you would lose through customers that are turned off by these sales schemes (e.g. I).

[rousselle]

Following onto TGW's and Harvonsgard's most recent two posts: excellent analysis, but also, a fair point to consider is that some of those who dropped their lower tier pledges *may* have done so because they decided that what they really wanted was the whole line-up, and if they couldn't spring for the Prism, it might be best to just drop the project altogether. (I'm intimately familiar with this kind of all-or-nothing OCD-ish collector trait, and fight with it often myself.) An additional possibility is that folks with multiple accounts pledged for the whole package with one account and the less-than-whole package with another, and in the end, dropped one but not the other. Keep in mind that since you put (almost) everything upfront, your drops would similarly be bunched together rather than spread out. This campaign was an experiment, after all, and changing one independent variable likely has a similar effect on other dependent variables.

HOWEVER, if it's the last possibility I mentioned, TGW, you've seen this before in your previous campaigns, so that raises the question: have you seen drops in previous campaigns (I'm sure you have), and how similar were they to this one as a percentage of your overall pledges? I'm guessing the answer is: yes, there've been dips before, but no, as a percentage of the project total, they weren't quite this big. HOWEVER HOWEVER, if my guesses are correct, then you still need to take into account the kind of percentage drop you've seen before in assessing the drop in this campaign, and the difference is the real drop that you're trying to explain.

At that point, all of the other possibilities (both earlier in my post, but also in Harvonsgard's recent post and your much longer list in your post) come into play.

As Jackson and Gio have noted previously, I think this dip your currently experiencing is another argument in favor of having a much shorter pledge cycle if you're going to do an all-upfront-style campaign in the future.

Also, when all is said and done, you'll have to look at this campaign's final numbers both in terms of pledges and expenses in order to determine whether you should write off this style campaign in the future. It could be you'll want to do a mix of approaches going forward, depending upon what your goals are for each campaign.

Just my two cents, and I know I have less information than many of y'all. I'm learning a lot from this discussion, and continue to enjoy everyone's engagement!

[GandalfPC]

I have been known to “all or nothing” it in the past, don’t do it so much (at all?) anymore now that I’m past my completionist phase

[STLBluesNut]

things blamed:
economy
stock market
showing all decks early
forum users who convinced tgw to show everything upfront
kickstarter algorithm
not enough engagement in comments
not enough people watching the campaign video

things not blamed:
expensive sarcophagus taking up half the cost of the tier

i agree that there are many things being thought to be at fault here. i do not discount that some of them, perhaps all of them have some part to play. however, i do think the main things for the funding being low(er than expected or hoped) are all plainly written all within this thread. yes, we UC users are a small portion of the community individually but are still to some degree representative. how many here alone did not back, dropped pledges or did not pledge much because decks were gated behind other decks or the box or other issues clearly stated in responses throughout this thread? is the thought that only people here, that clearly expressed those issues, are the only few that didnt back because of those reasons? hell, bradius only got what? 4, 5 or 6 decks without looking back to find his post. the guy that just blows everyone away with how much he normally gets on campaigns of this magnitude.

what is the total impact this had? we will probably never know. however, i feel if the clear indications of why people didn't back in this thread are ignored, a big piece is missing. i think the way this campaign was structured can be learned from by many creators. unfortunately, i think many will look at the total pledged and draw, in my opinion, the wrong conclusions. i believe the things listed in the rockets quote above are just hopeful guesses to somewhat avoid looking at possibly the real issues.

can a campaign be successful and still disappointing? i think it can and we are seeing it in this campaign. for all the time, stress, effort, heart and soul poured into this campaign was it worth it, financially, to him? idk, we will never see the numbers on the real profit. only going by what he has stated here, it seems maybe no. we see a high pledge amount and assume it was successful to a great degree but how much of that is costs, shipping, fees, etc?

it is going to be natural to analyze and second guess decisions made and analysis should be done. dont let it get you down too much. we all love you here and hope the best for you. we appreciate your participation here and in the community. regardless if we backed this project or not, we will all be here waiting for your next.

[bdawg923]

Following onto TGW's and Harvonsgard's most recent two posts: excellent analysis, but also, a fair point to consider is that some of those who dropped their lower tier pledges *may* have done so because they decided that what they really wanted was the whole line-up, and if they couldn't spring for the Prism, it might be best to just drop the project altogether.

Get out of my head!

I'm exactly this. I wanted all the decks (or at least one deck and the ability to buy a few prism display decks). I don't want the sarcophagus so I am on the edge of cancelling my one deck because of it. The sarcophagus tier may be indirectly influencing the people who canceled their 3-5 decks pledges because they didn't want the sarcophagus or couldn't afford it, or whatever other reason and canceled now. Also there's still a week left. I hope more sarcophagus tiers don't get dropped but I already saw like 5 dropped if I'm not mistaken. (I saw 4 remaining a week ago and 9 remaining earlier today, but tbh I might have been looking at different rewards accidentally)

[brownsl]

Following onto TGW's and Harvonsgard's most recent two posts: excellent analysis, but also, a fair point to consider is that some of those who dropped their lower tier pledges *may* have done so because they decided that what they really wanted was the whole line-up, and if they couldn't spring for the Prism, it might be best to just drop the project altogether.

Get out of my head!

I'm exactly this. I wanted all the decks (or at least one deck and the ability to buy a few prism display decks). I don't want the sarcophagus so I am on the edge of cancelling my one deck because of it. The sarcophagus tier may be indirectly influencing the people who canceled their 3-5 decks pledges because they didn't want the sarcophagus or couldn't afford it, or whatever other reason and canceled now. Also there's still a week left. I hope more sarcophagus tiers don't get dropped but I already saw like 5 dropped if I'm not mistaken. (I saw 4 remaining a week ago and 9 remaining earlier today, but tbh I might have been looking at different rewards accidentally)

This is me also. I dropped my pledge from the sarcophagus down to a pledge without it. I am considering dropping all the way out as I want the Prism deck. I am completionist and to be honest I am a bit bitter that it is locked behind a box. I spent a LOT of money to SUPPORT the Tempest campaign and got a lot of awesome decks, all of them. To get all of them here I have to get a hella expensive box I have zero interest in. But it is his artistic creation and that needs to be respected. I wish collectors that like beautiful decks of playing cards only and not bling would have been considered.

I used to spend a lot of money on TWI decks but lost out on the ridiculous race to buy a Eva RR and now have a hole in my TWI collection. This has negatively affected how much I have spent on TWI decks since then.

[laitostarr777]

I am so worried about my pledge, since recently I saw the exchange rate of USD to IDR is just.... getting worse. I have no idea what the heck is going on, but... if it keeps on rising, I might have to dropped the 5 decks to 4 with hopes of the 5th and the extra edition to be available on Backerkit.... OR WORSE, I might just to dropped it completely

[TheGentlemanWake]

Every campaign has drops. Lorenzo says he had a 15% drop rate on EOTO. For s17 that was high. Successor has had an 18% cancellation rate thus far. The biggest difference has been Successor relative high average pledge amount at $270. We’ve been hovering at about 1000 backers. That’s about ~180 drops. At $270 each? 48k is a lot of money. The drop number is also more evident because we just aren’t gaining new folks in the volume we need to offset losses. This is likely due to the more-than-necessary campaign length on this style campaign.

I think the cancellations are not a successor only issue. I want to note that arks campaign saw five straight negative funding days at the end. They had a bit of controversy with their campaign but I suspect a lot of what they experienced could be related to what I’m experiencing. Additionally Asads campaign has multiple days of negative funding. This is unusual. Campaign historically almost always go up.

I won’t be structuring a campaign like this in the future. Meaning it’s unlikely that I’ll ever do a “show all up front” model. I also will be particular about how I market items. Things like the sarcophagus —which are unlikely— will be free unlocked added value to a tier rather than something being payed for up front. Limited decks aren’t going away, but the counts may be different

I would normally be very optimistic about seven days left una. Campaign. But things trending as they are it will make the final days troubling. Regardless I have a commitment to my backers to bring them the absolute best and deliver. That will remain in place no matter what happens.

[TheGentlemanWake]

In the meantime. Some images of the legacy tuck prototype.

[hsbc]

I really think it's the economy, times are tough for a lot of people right now

[Fenrir]

There are a lot of good comments here about what may or may not have happened regarding the drop in pledges. I think many people are right that the economy is hurting a lot of peoples disposable income. I have seen more sales posts on Reddit/UC/Facebook in the last month than I have ever seen previously.

That being said, I dropped my tier for one main reason and that was because I really just wanted the Dynastinae deck. I found it to be the most appealing and as such I was bummed when I couldn't get it alone. I know the reasons why and I am not faulting Omar for that, just sharing why I dropped my pledge.

Whatever happens, I am sure there will be lessons learned and your next campaign will be different and continue to showcase high quality cards. At the end of the day it's still a successful campaign, more so than many others.

[sms69x]

I dropped because of the overrated shipping and the buy 'lot of things you don't want'.

[shunterino]

I think the whole campaign was structured to extract as much money from each individual supporter rather than to bring in the maximum number of customers. That's not necessarily a bad thing (the idea is to make money, right?) but it ended up being a bigger benefit for the whales than the one-deck Andys, so I don't think it's all that surprising it didn't pull in the numbers other projects have.

The regular guy who just wants the one deck doesn't want the one the producer decides he should get, they want the one they like. And if they can't have it (because it's paywalled behind 12 other decks) they aren't just going to settle for the one they don't like as much just because it's the only one available.

It would have been better (imo) to make fancy boxes and special tuck boxes available to higher tiers, but making specific decks exclusive wasn't a great idea - not for any ethical reason, just because it limits your reach (assuming that's what you're after).

[Bradius]

I have been off for awhile. I didn't drop anything and looking forward to my rewards.

[kevork]

I just added the Carat T case + 3 legacy decks. A nice sidekick to the sarcophagus. Omar, you are going to bleed me dry, but one day when I have a nice cabinet/shelving to display all my decks, this will be one of the centerpieces <3

[TheGentlemanWake]

I just added the Carat T case + 3 legacy decks. A nice sidekick to the sarcophagus. Omar, you are going to bleed me dry, but one day when I have a nice cabinet/shelving to display all my decks, this will be one of the centerpieces <3

I had been struggling with how to make the legacy a nice companion and we think the carat case solution was the way to go. I TOO cannot wait to see your display!

I had already been planning this release--I was just waiting on confirmation from Sherman for pricing. I was going to wait until the sleeve prototypes were ready but we are getting precariously close to the campaign end. Plus, the funding bleed has been significant and I'd be lying if I didn't say we hope this will at least stem it a bit.

[Bikefanatic]

I recently went to a museum and seen a bunch of mini caskets (used to carry jewelry, cosmetics, etc) mostly from the 1500s. I automatically thought about this campaign. Seen those among other art, it makes sense!
It's time to do some pledge adjusting/increasing before it ends.

[TheGentlemanWake]

I recently went to a museum and seen a bunch of mini caskets (used to carry jewelry, cosmetics, etc) mostly from the 1500s. I automatically thought about this campaign. Seen those among other art, it makes sense!
It's time to do some pledge adjusting/increasing before it ends.

oh cool! Did you take any pictures! Would love to see.

[Bikefanatic]

I recently went to a museum and seen a bunch of mini caskets (used to carry jewelry, cosmetics, etc) mostly from the 1500s. I automatically thought about this campaign. Seen those among other art, it makes sense!
It's time to do some pledge adjusting/increasing before it ends.

oh cool! Did you take any pictures! Would love to see.

Here you go. The site still wanna show stuff sideways.

[hsbc]

Fixed the image