The Successor by TGW/Kevin Cantrell

[TheGentlemanWake]

Kinda seems to me that the takeaways from this campaign aren't the right ones. Just some thoughts:

1) it's more successful than tempest by amount pledged, yet the next campaign is going back to the old model? Why? Makes no sense.

The tempest campaign is currently more profitable than Successor. This is in part due to more expensive production but also because the items in question were offered from the begining making it a commitment on our behalf to provide them.

2) I think backers backed the $500 tempest tier because it was full of decks, and people are mostly backing this despite the box just to get the prism deck. Yet there's no survey or way to tell whether people mostly want the deck, the box or both. Can't draw any conclusions unless you ask.

I have plans to send out post-campaign information surveys to determine this among a bunch of other questions I would like answered.

3) I imagine lotrek is a more popular designer than Kevin Cantrell (because he mostly does work for other companies, whereas lotrek is his own brand and his decks sell for hundreds of dollars regularly) yet this project raised more funds than tempest. So why go back to the old model?

The old model increases engagement which has a positive affect on the algorithmic standing of a given campaign with KS. The funds are certainly higher--however the backer count is still lower. More people chose to back Tempest. Ideally you would want to have all metrics be appreciably better (a) funding total, (b) backer count, (c) profitability. As it stands Successor is 1/3rd of the way there.

4) potentially limiting add-ons to certain tiers is a bad look and in my opinion very anti-backer

There is no way to do this currently within Kickstarter. I believe backerkit has a method of doing this, I'm not sure. If it does it will increase the liklihood that I will offer a display deck to the backers who pledged for a prism edition. Offering the display deck allows for backers of the sealed deck to actually open and display the cards if they so desire. It's not designed as a budget method of buying the prism deck. This is same way Jackson does it.

5) seems like too much weight is being put into commenting and keeping fans engaged. I would rather my campaign made $270k with no engagement rather than $194k with constant engagement. The numbers speak for themselves here.

See above comments to 1 and 3.

5a) no way to know if the campaign would have made the same amount if you used the old model. Or more. Or maybe less. There's too many variables. But you do know that it has already made more than tempest.

No we cannot know this for sure. What I can appreciably gauge is that Successor has stalled in new backers since launch in ways that Parlour and Tempest did not. There are several possible reasons for this. Maybe Parlour and Tempest had better virality/more influencer reach that caused more of a trickle of new backers. Maybe Parlour/Tempest had more engagement and therefore remained popular among the recommendations made by the KS algorithm. Maybe the economy isn't as strong and people are cutting back on hobbies. Maybe its a combination of the above or NONE of the above. But it's worth running a scientific experiment to determine that--and the next logical step would be to return to the previous model and reassess it's viability in the new economy.

6) we all thought the campaign would be very successful, which it is, but I wonder if those guesses of how much it would make kinda skewed the vision. People were guessing the campaign could make $350-$600k and if it doesn't, it looks like a failure? It's not. It's still a huge success.

I had no set expectations for what the campaign might do. I had hopes and dreams of course. And I had fears. The campaign as currently funded would be profitable. That's great . It alleviates fears. My hopes have not yet been realized. I do know that expectations that were formed--after the first day--were built out of my previous experience. Even if the campaign made $1k a day we would reach close to 300k. But the campaign stalled as some backers dropped--this was NOT my experience and unexpected

7) comparing to the lord of the rings campaign was another mistake as that is a huge global brand and the tgw brand is nowhere near it. No offense, but lotr just has more fans and more pull.

Absolutely valid. And I knew that. I had no aspirations of reaching 8000 backers. I would've been floored by 2000. As it stands we haven't reached 1000.

[TheGentlemanWake]

you kind of backed yourself into a corner with the most expensive tier if every time you add an item to thr campaign, you have to give it them for free which is maybe holding back from releasing some add-ons? anyway, the idea of limiting prism display decks to prism buyers is fantastic. can't afford to cough up $500 for a shiny box? no prism display decks for you! f the plebs i always say. they want a prism deck, well Then loosen those purse strings. should also lock the prism uncut tucks behind that same paywall. burberry doesn't have cheaper versions of their $800 scarves for the poors, why should you? anyway, great campaign so far. definitely not pissing any people off and everyone is very happy with it

I'm having a hard time deciphering the tone of this comment. The language in the tiers is written as such that all unlocked Stretch Goals are included in the top tier. We always planned for that. Add-ons are not necessarily stretch goals. For instance I added the uncut tuck sheets today. Those were no unlocked stretch goals and function in the similar way to uncut sheets of cards. I've been kicking around the idea of offering a KS exclusive deck that will be ONLY available to the campaign. It's a variant of the Imperial deck with black edge printing and gold tuck with a sleeve. It is likely to happen. That also will not be considered a stretch goal. It's not something we initially planned to do. But I'm experimenting with ways to increase excitement and liked Jackson's model of a KS exclusive version.
Finally, with regards to the Prism uncut tuck, you can in fact walk into a ferrari dealership and purchase a hat or a t-shirt or a keychain without buying the car. It's a way for people to see what their missing while getting a taste of the end product. It's the same reason I packaged Dynastinae and Prism sample cards with pledges on TTOTT.

[GandalfPC]

I'm having a hard time deciphering the tone of this comment.

I believe the tone is “aggressive sarcasm” with a shade of “class warfare”

[bdawg923]

4) potentially limiting add-ons to certain tiers is a bad look and in my opinion very anti-backer

There is no way to do this currently within Kickstarter. I believe backerkit has a method of doing this, I'm not sure. If it does it will increase the liklihood that I will offer a display deck to the backers who pledged for a prism edition. Offering the display deck allows for backers of the sealed deck to actually open and display the cards if they so desire. It's not designed as a budget method of buying the prism deck. This is same way Jackson does it.

That's just not true... I was literally thinking of Jackson's display decks when I suggested prism display decks on page 25 of this thread.

"Each Backer is allowed to add up to 4 Display Decks total. "https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... ts/1058064

"$7 per deck" https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

"Only available as an add-on to an existing pledge tier." https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

"If you are an existing backer you may add on the Pearl Tally Ho Players Edition for $10 Dom" https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

He limited it to purchasers of the limited edition in one campaign that I could find: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

But of course it's your campaign to run as you wish. Doesn't make it not anti-backer though.

[JacksonRobinson]

Yes, you can limit both tiers and add-ons within Kickstarter.

[TheGentlemanWake]

4) potentially limiting add-ons to certain tiers is a bad look and in my opinion very anti-backer

There is no way to do this currently within Kickstarter. I believe backerkit has a method of doing this, I'm not sure. If it does it will increase the liklihood that I will offer a display deck to the backers who pledged for a prism edition. Offering the display deck allows for backers of the sealed deck to actually open and display the cards if they so desire. It's not designed as a budget method of buying the prism deck. This is same way Jackson does it.

That's just not true... I was literally thinking of Jackson's display decks when I suggested prism display decks on page 25 of this thread.

"Each Backer is allowed to add up to 4 Display Decks total. "https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... ts/1058064

"$7 per deck" https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

"Only available as an add-on to an existing pledge tier." https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

"If you are an existing backer you may add on the Pearl Tally Ho Players Edition for $10 Dom" https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

He limited it to purchasers of the limited edition in one campaign that I could find: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ki ... escription

But of course it's your campaign to run as you wish. Doesn't make it not anti-backer though.

I prefer to think of it as Pro-high tier backer. This campaign is funded on the pledges of less than 1000 people for an average pledge of $270! I would like to protect those people's interests by giving them a reward exclusive to them. Display decks reduce the exclusivity of a product, in my opinion. When i was thinking of Jackson's display decks I was thinking of his tigers display deck that was packaged with the limited version.

[GandalfPC]

I do think its clear that it is a “luxury” campaign, and arguably a “luxury brand” - it may not be for you, but you don’t need to fault it for existing or attempt to change it.

I feel it broadens the scope of the industry to have brands and projects of all natures - leather goods don’t suffer Hermes

I am also in total agreement that the display decks should go to those that own the actual decks here - even though I both desire and will not be getting the prism deck

[rockets455]

reading this as: i don't want everyone who isn't rich to have my purple deck. not even a knockoff version. their pledges mean nothing to me. only the people who cough up $500 for the coffin are valued in this campaign. weird long term strategy hope it works out for you

I am also in total agreement that the display decks should go to those that own the actual decks here - even though I both desire and will not be getting the prism deck

are the mods not allowed to disagree with the campaign designers or something? this is such a weird take

[STLBluesNut]

the kickstarter algorithm discussion is a bit interesting. definitely not something i would even think about as a backer. frankly, now even knowing about it a little, it is still something i don't care about as a backer. getting a good value and ease of purchase is what matters.

there are quite a few bits of information that would be very interesting to know that we never will. how many people decided not to back and why? how much design and production cost for this box and metal plate have chewed into the margin? more money from less backers but still less profitable? something ate that profit and i have a good guess. how many people actually wanted the box vs how many bought it for the deck? and many more.

it is really too bad that creators cannot just go on kickstarter and offer a product. instead, they have to make a myriad of decisions in order to manipulate the system and backers. that happens in lots of places though such as clickbait on youtube, keyword abuse on insta or ebay. use shady tactics or get lost in the sea of creators or sellers.

[GandalfPC]

are the mods not allowed to disagree with the campaign designers or something? this is such a weird take

I think you will find that the mods here indeed disagree when they are of such a mind as to do so. I imagine that some may disagree with me on this point in particular - my point was my take alone.

But we do frown upon undo aggression as that is our job - points can be made without being overly smug, snarky, or sarcastic. As hsbc said, keep it civil - but disagree as much as you like and feel free to comment about it.

[hsbc]

are the mods not allowed to disagree with the campaign designers or something?

The mods here are individuals with their own opinions. No one tells us what to say or not say - not creators, not other mods, not administrators. To demonstrate: I think Prism display decks should be offered to anyone and everyone! That doesn't mean I don't understand why Omar is pricing things the way he is, it's his (successful) campaign. Please dial down the passive aggression, thank you

[GandalfPC]

I think hsbc has made my point a bit more clear - and he is right on both points of freedom and aggression. (Of course he’s wrong about display decks, but no ones perfect )

[STLBluesNut]

reading this as: i don't want everyone who isn't rich to have my purple deck. not even a knockoff version. their pledges mean nothing to me. only the people who cough up $500 for the coffin are valued in this campaign.

i don't think that is the thought process for TGW but i do think you bring up something interesting. i think this is the mentality of some humans, especially collectors. it is the mentality that drives the whole craze of limited editions, artificial rarity and exclusivity. some people just don't want others to have what they have. the less people that have it the more it makes them feel better about themselves and about their purchase. it is why, except for people that see this as an investment, people even give a shit about limited editions or what number they got, etc. so they can look at others and say ''ha! you dont have one'', or feel better than them when someone says ''i wish i had that''. really it is the same thing that drives the investor and reseller because if people didn't have this mentality there would be no money to be made. it is these people that pretty much ruin any collectors market.

the problem is that there are so many of them creators have to cater to them or it is more profitable to cater to them rather than someone like me who couldn't care less if there were 5 decks, 500 or 5 million ever made and will not pay a premium for them. there are so many that will just buy anyway to feel good or impress others that it doesn't matter. luxury brands dont sell because they are better or last longer. some kind of higher physical quality. they sell because people will spend factors more on even an inferior item because of these mentalities. just look at the hype brands in this particular hobby. why else would anyone buy 13 bricks of any of the fontaines shit mystery releases to get that 1 of 500 deck? to feel better or above anyone else that didnt get one, to show they had the money to buy one in the after market or to sell to one of those people. why else pay hundreds of dollars for a stack of paper with that kind of design and absolutely no features?

so in short, i think you are on the right track but directing it at the wrong person/people.

[GandalfPC]

You are right on several points - but not on all, as certainly some luxury brands do exist because they are better and last longer in many cases. The artisans that produce things, and the time they are required to spend on each - the cost of materials used - the slightest imperfection causing an item to have to be discarded at whatever stage of production it might be in. Such things cost money. They also cater to a crowd that appreciates such things - they do not attempt to be all things to all people, nor do they attempt to sell quantity over quality - there are plenty of people already doing that.

I personally do purchase some decks with thought to future value - quite a few in fact - that is my choice. Many others I know and respect do not do so. There should be things in the marketplace to please us both.

If you have ever seen a TGW video it is obvious that it is a high class, leather and scotch, environment - there are plenty of barstools and beer out there - and plenty of really great beer, and really fun bars.

Something for everyone, not everything for everyone.

There are differences between a TGW deck and a Daniel Madison deck - and that includes design time and dollars invested - it also includes the vision of the creator, which is allowed to be his own.

[rockets455]

reading this as: i don't want everyone who isn't rich to have my purple deck. not even a knockoff version. their pledges mean nothing to me. only the people who cough up $500 for the coffin are valued in this campaign.

i don't think that is the thought process for TGW but i do think you bring up something interesting. i think this is the mentality of some humans, especially collectors. it is the mentality that drives the whole craze of limited editions, artificial rarity and exclusivity. some people just don't want others to have what they have. the less people that have it the more it makes them feel better about themselves and about their purchase. it is why, except for people that see this as an investment, people even give a shit about limited editions or what number they got, etc. so they can look at others and say ''ha! you dont have one'', or feel better than them when someone says ''i wish i had that''. really it is the same thing that drives the investor and reseller because if people didn't have this mentality there would be no money to be made. it is these people that pretty much ruin any collectors market.

the problem is that there are so many of them creators have to cater to them or it is more profitable to cater to them rather than someone like me who couldn't care less if there were 5 decks, 500 or 5 million ever made and will not pay a premium for them. there are so many that will just buy anyway to feel good or impress others that it doesn't matter. luxury brands dont sell because they are better or last longer. some kind of higher physical quality. they sell because people will spend factors more on even an inferior item because of these mentalities. just look at the hype brands in this particular hobby. why else would anyone buy 13 bricks of any of the fontaines shit mystery releases to get that 1 of 500 deck? to feel better or above anyone else that didnt get one, to show they had the money to buy one in the after market or to sell to one of those people. why else pay hundreds of dollars for a stack of paper with that kind of design and absolutely no features?

so in short, i think you are on the right track but directing it at the wrong person/people.

you definitely put it more eloquently and i of course agree here. but I do think it's partly on the creator. making display decks limited serves no purpose other than to be petty. how in the world will someone buying a display deck, someone who can't afford the $500 tier, or doesn't want to pay a ton of money for the coffin they have no use for, how does that person buying a display deck devalue the real prism deck? it doesn't. it would not be the same deck. there were suggestions of not gilding it, not including foils, putting it in a plain white tuck box. at that point it's not even the same deck anymore, yet creator here would choose to limit it to the people who pay more anyway. I understand his point about having 200 prism editions to keep it very limited and exclusive. i don't like that but I get it. but making a cheap display deck ALSO limited is just petty. i can't think of another way to describe it. it serves no purpose other than to piss off everyone who isn't a $500 backer. it's a giant middle finger to the 625 or whatever backers who aren't in the prism tiers. "Pro high tier" doesn't have to also be "idgaf about everyone else". it won't devalue the real prism deck if others are allowed to buy the display deck version which wouldn't even be the same deck.

[GandalfPC]

One can argue that it doesn’t devalue the prism, but that is just an opinion - and not everyone’s. Making such a deck for those that did purchase the prism is nice - and in no way has to be anything other than that - TGW doesn’t have to overthink being nice to prism backers and wrestle with whether making more for everyone is good for those backers or not - they can just do something nice for the prism backers and leave it at that if they wish. It does not imply evil intent or idgaf attitude. It is a difficult choice in reality, and he is already stressed enough to not have to take on one more stress at every turn.

[STLBluesNut]

yes, SOME luxury brands. i would argue that those are few and far in between. yes, handmade high quality artisan stuff, we can agree on somewhat. however, there are many more brands out there like supreme and off white that are selling their $1k t shirts and sweatshirts or $800 shoes that are purchasing from the same sweatshop in china that walmart buys their stuff from for $2. slap a ''luxury brand'' and mark up on it that some people will buy for outrageous prices to look down on others or impress the ladies.

as for your purchases, there would be no future value if it were not for the people i described. right, wrong or indifferent, it is just an aspect of the human condition.

[rockets455]

You are right on several points - but not on all, as certainly some luxury brands do exist because they are better and last longer in many cases. The artisans that produce things, and the time they are required to spend on each - the cost of materials used - the slightest imperfection causing an item to have to be discarded at whatever stage of production it might be in. Such things cost money. They also cater to a crowd that appreciates such things - they do not attempt to be all things to all people, nor do they attempt to sell quantity over quality - there are plenty of people already doing that.

I personally do purchase some decks with thought to future value - quite a few in fact - that is my choice. Many others I know and respect do not do so. There should be things in the marketplace to please us both.

If you have ever seen a TGW video it is obvious that it is a high class, leather and scotch, environment - there are plenty of barstools and beer out there - and plenty of really great beer, and really fun bars.

Something for everyone, not everything for everyone.

There are differences between a TGW deck and a Daniel Madison deck - and that includes design time and dollars invested - it also includes the vision of the creator, which is allowed to be his own.

what if the purpose of the standard decks then. just sell super limited decks like oath does. prism, dynastinae and monarch edition, all in a 3 deck sarcophagus. 100 slots available. what could be more exclusive. also are you implying the prism deck doesn't cost the same amount to produce as basically any other gilded deck? i am not following what you're saying about artisans here. it's still just a stack of papers printed by cartamundi, just like all the other decks in the campaign. only difference is the quantity printed. it's not more expensive because it's made of gold and diamonds or something. it's just a bit more limited

[rockets455]

One can argue that it doesn’t devalue the prism, but that is just an opinion - and not everyone’s. Making such a deck for those that did purchase the prism is nice - and in no way has to be anything other than that - TGW doesn’t have to overthink being nice to prism backers and wrestle with whether making more for everyone is good for those backers or not - they can just do something nice for the prism backers and leave it at that if they wish. It does not imply evil intent or idgaf attitude. It is a difficult choice in reality, and he is already stressed enough to not have to take on one more stress at every turn.

that's like saying my bmw 8 series lost it's value because bmw also designed a 2 series.

supply and demand means if there is more of something, then the value will go down. a display deck is not a prism deck. it's not the same supply. its not a matter of opinion if two decks of cards are not identical. if he makes more prism decks, then the value of each goes down.

[GandalfPC]

The purpose of the standard decks, which are indeed cheaper to produce, is to give people a very nice deck - and a taste of the brand.

The prism deck is not only more expensive to produce, but it is complimentary to the sarcophagus - they are bound at the hip.

[GandalfPC]

You will notice that bmw does not produce cheap cars - just a variety of expensive ones. The “lesser priced” expensive ones are an entry into the brand.

If bmw (or Lamborghini) wanted to do so, they could make cheap ones with the same look of the outer shell, but without the expensive innards - they do not. They protect their brand.

[rockets455]

You will notice that bmw does not produce cheap cars - just a variety of expensive ones. The “lesser priced” expensive ones are an entry into the brand.

If bmw (or Lamborghini) wanted to do so, they could make cheap ones with the same look of the outer shell, but without the expensive innards - they do not.

ok but there is a $36000 bmw and also a $130000 bmw. I bet the people who buy the $130k one don't feel it loses its value whenever bmw sells a $36k model. because they're not the same

saw you added a comment about Lamborghini not making a cheaper car to protect the brand. fair enough, then why are there standard decks for $20 wouldn't they devalue the brand? you are not being consistent here. either you say tgw is a luxury brand and doesn't want to devalue their brand like Hermes or Lamborghini, then they should not sell $20 standard editions. or they want to give people a taste of the brand, well then you're no longer Hermes or lambo, you're bmw who makes a $35k car that's more attractive to the general public than their $130k supercar. aka the cheap display decks. which is it

[GandalfPC]

Then you should not be complaining, because the red and blue decks are equivalent to the $36000 bmw, and the prism/sarcophagus is equivalent to the 130000 one.

The display deck is only for owners of the equivalent model - and there have been car manufacturers that have produced toy cars that were only for the owners of those cars.

[TheGentlemanWake]

reading this as: i don't want everyone who isn't rich to have my purple deck. not even a knockoff version. their pledges mean nothing to me. only the people who cough up $500 for the coffin are valued in this campaign.

i don't think that is the thought process for TGW but i do think you bring up something interesting. i think this is the mentality of some humans, especially collectors. it is the mentality that drives the whole craze of limited editions, artificial rarity and exclusivity. some people just don't want others to have what they have. the less people that have it the more it makes them feel better about themselves and about their purchase. it is why, except for people that see this as an investment, people even give a shit about limited editions or what number they got, etc. so they can look at others and say ''ha! you dont have one'', or feel better than them when someone says ''i wish i had that''. really it is the same thing that drives the investor and reseller because if people didn't have this mentality there would be no money to be made. it is these people that pretty much ruin any collectors market.

the problem is that there are so many of them creators have to cater to them or it is more profitable to cater to them rather than someone like me who couldn't care less if there were 5 decks, 500 or 5 million ever made and will not pay a premium for them. there are so many that will just buy anyway to feel good or impress others that it doesn't matter. luxury brands dont sell because they are better or last longer. some kind of higher physical quality. they sell because people will spend factors more on even an inferior item because of these mentalities. just look at the hype brands in this particular hobby. why else would anyone buy 13 bricks of any of the fontaines shit mystery releases to get that 1 of 500 deck? to feel better or above anyone else that didnt get one, to show they had the money to buy one in the after market or to sell to one of those people. why else pay hundreds of dollars for a stack of paper with that kind of design and absolutely no features?

so in short, i think you are on the right track but directing it at the wrong person/people.

you definitely put it more eloquently and i of course agree here. but I do think it's partly on the creator. making display decks limited serves no purpose other than to be petty. how in the world will someone buying a display deck, someone who can't afford the $500 tier, or doesn't want to pay a ton of money for the coffin they have no use for, how does that person buying a display deck devalue the real prism deck? it doesn't. it would not be the same deck. there were suggestions of not gilding it, not including foils, putting it in a plain white tuck box. at that point it's not even the same deck anymore, yet creator here would choose to limit it to the people who pay more anyway. I understand his point about having 200 prism editions to keep it very limited and exclusive. i don't like that but I get it. but making a cheap display deck ALSO limited is just petty. i can't think of another way to describe it. it serves no purpose other than to piss off everyone who isn't a $500 backer. it's a giant middle finger to the 625 or whatever backers who aren't in the prism tiers. "Pro high tier" doesn't have to also be "idgaf about everyone else". it won't devalue the real prism deck if others are allowed to buy the display deck version which wouldn't even be the same deck.

This is the LAST i'm going to say of this. I'm done talking about it. PRISM decks are for PRISM backers. Only Prism backers get to play with a Successor deck that has holofoil. DONE. simple. FINISHED.

Because BMW sells M3s and M5s to people with the money to afford them doesn't mean they don't care about the people who buy 325is. But it doesn't mean they are giving the 325i owners the M3 motors in their 325is without the badges and trim on the car. The CARDS are the EXCLUSIVE item in this case. It's the M3 motor. Moreover, if you've ever bought a ticket to a sporting event you know that the more you spend the perks you unlock. Luxury box owners get free food, sometimes private elevators. I defy you to show me a business that sells to the public that doesn't value a top tier customer more than a one time buyer, That's why brand-loyalty rewards exist. Does that mean the business doesn't care about the one time buyer? Because the one-time buyer doesnt get the same discount a buyer with repeated business gets? Your argument is invalid. And I'm sorry to say I SHOULD care more about the person spending $1000 versus the one spending $10. It's a frankly a much better use of a business' time. This is CAPATALISM. Doesn't mean I don't value the person spending $10... I valued them GREATLY. I love the support they provide and I'm HUGELY thankful of it. But the folks spending $1k have paid for a bit more attention. And If I can make my top tier backers happy they fund projects like this one. Where 40% of the backers have produced 70% of the funding.

AT the end of the day I urge anyone out there who thinks they know the business better and can be more successful to PLEASE give it a go! I will cheer on and support as much as I can. I believe in the aggregate model of competition. The more great quality card makers out there the better business is for everyone.

[GandalfPC]

And thank the heavens that someone makes expensive cigars and scotch, and that they focus on that.

[hsbc]

This is the LAST i'm going to say of this. I'm done talking about it. PRISM decks are for PRISM backers. Only Prism backers get to play with a Successor deck that has holofoil. DONE. simple. FINISHED.

I'll take this, put on my mod hat, and run with it -- let's all drop the Prism / display deck discussion from here on We're just talking in circles As always anyone can PM me if this is somehow a problem!

[Bradius]

I have been doing some "back of napkin" calculations, and I figure TGW is utterly scamming us and making off with millions of our hard earned dollars....

He already has nearly 1,000 backers (aka suckers) backing this thinly veiled travesty of a campaign for $270,000. So, how does TGW turn this into millions? Easy, he goes and places some great bets in Vegas and boosts it up to $1.5 million. Easy. Then he shorts Tesla to turn another easy $1.5 Million, short gas and double his money again, all before he needs to pay his vendors. Dang, already an easy $6 million from my hard money he grabbed from me. The printing? I am sure he can get these decks printed for $0.10 per deck and pocket the difference. He has also already locked in cheap shipping that he can get done including fulfillment for a flat $2.5 per backer rate any size any country. I bet he got this designed by Keven as gratis for making a couple of slick video productions for him, so let's call the development cost zero. Final profit has to be somewhere close to $12 Million if I did my math correctly. Gosh it is great to be TGW.



PS: I sure had fun making this post. I hope folks can just step back, laugh and have a great weekend. Life is very short. Try to enjoy it and not mess it up for everybody else.

PPSS: Lamborghinis are for shmucks. I have my own space ship that does warp 9.8. Scotty, beam me up. I have some cool decks to hunt out in the Delta Quadrant stat.

[TheGentlemanWake]

the kickstarter algorithm discussion is a bit interesting. definitely not something i would even think about as a backer. frankly, now even knowing about it a little, it is still something i don't care about as a backer. getting a good value and ease of purchase is what matters.

there are quite a few bits of information that would be very interesting to know that we never will. how many people decided not to back and why? how much design and production cost for this box and metal plate have chewed into the margin? more money from less backers but still less profitable? something ate that profit and i have a good guess. how many people actually wanted the box vs how many bought it for the deck? and many more.

it is really too bad that creators cannot just go on kickstarter and offer a product. instead, they have to make a myriad of decisions in order to manipulate the system and backers. that happens in lots of places though such as clickbait on youtube, keyword abuse on insta or ebay. use shady tactics or get lost in the sea of creators or sellers.

Here's what I CAN tell you. A metric that has proven effective at measuring the likelihood of a KS campaign to be successful is the Video Completion to Plays percentage. It's been quantified by folks dedicated to studying this stuff that evidently the higher the percentage of full complete views of the Kickstarter campaign video the higher the funding goals tend to climb. It's an odd correlation to be sure. But seems like there's some statistic behind it. You could argue that if someone watches the whole video perhaps they are more invested in the project and therefore more likely to back it? Maybe it has to do with the video itself--the better the video the more of it gets watched and its safe to assume a good video probably shows off the product better and is therefore more convincing. Whatever the reason may be for this its seems to be an axiom that holds at least a bit of water. 44% has been identified as the threshhold for a 'very successful' campaign. We currently have an astonishing 58% completion rate on Successor. Now, as a video creator I'd like to take some credit for this. I know how to make videos after all. BUT it maybe indicates why so many folks have been willing to put in so much money. AS to why MORE people haven't backed it? I REALLY believe its an eyeballs thing. Because currently our video has only been played about 1500 times. Parlour saw 5000 video plays (much lower completion percentage... 37%. Still good but not 'very successful' good according to this metric). Parlour was of course a resounding success but I'm merely referencing the numbers. Why the lower completion percentage? Could it be that the algorithm showed the parlour project to more fringe backers? And that those fringe backers watched a bit of the video and thought 'hmmm not for me'? That actually would be a very sound explanation. So maybe the constant activity on Parlour resulted in the Parlour being reccomended to more fringe backers. Even if that meant lower video completion it was a lower percentage of a much higher number. Guess what 37% of 5000 is? 1850. Parlour had 1720 backers. 58% of 1500? 870 Backers. Successor has 987. Successor needs eyeballs.

As of now our conversion rate is commensurate with my previous campaigns, and quite a few people have chosen to be reminded when the campaign is on the verge of ending... We'll see if that conversion number goes up.

The production cost of the box is being paid for by the box backers. In other words, persons buying red decks or deck bundles or even the Dynastinae Rex bundle are NOT footing the bill for the box. The box is a self contained apparatus. Think of it as two campaigns in one if its easier. What's more expensive is the WORLD. Cartamundi's prices are SIGNIFICANTLY more expensive that they were when we printed in 2020. Shipping and fulfillment estimates are AT LEAST DOUBLE what they were for Tempest. The metal plates on the White deck (and purple) are an additional cost and also more expensive than printing the metal cards were on tempest. This isn't even accounting for inflation.

It is too bad that creators are forced to take all of the algorithm, and campaign structure, and all of the above into consideration and can't just put out a product. But that's the modern digital world. I've been busting my ass on YOUTUBE for years spending 15-25 hours on every video and I have barely 14k subs to show for it. Other creators are putting much less effort into their videos than I do on the daily and they might have 5 or 6x my sub count.

[TheGentlemanWake]

Here's a graph from my Jellop dashboard showing the relative popularity of the Successor campaign. Note that popularity rank is almost assuredly a metric the KS algorithm uses to identify who to 'show' your project to. The campaign had a TREMENDOUS opening day and half. That is evident and reflected in the below graph. Lots of backer/pledges and activity. Once the activity dropped off, so did it's popularity. It would almost certainly have an effect on the amount of new backers (read: pledges) that came in.

[Strag]

Interesting. I have backed hundreds of Kickstarters. I have never once watched a video on any of them.

Breaking the algorithm!