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GandalfPC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:40 pm Twitter was and likely will always be a trash fire - just funny to see Musk thinking he can fix that while he makes it so much worse

One might think that he could have spent a bit more time sorting the trash before he simply turned the building upside down and shook it.

It's been crystal clear since that cave incident that Musk is completely full of crap, doesn't really know what he's doing, and is mostly a hype dealer.

There also seems to be some evidence that he lied about his education

Adamthinks wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:44 pm It's been crystal clear since that cave incident that Musk is completely full of crap, doesn't really know what he's doing, and is mostly a hype dealer.

Are you really this convicted to judging someone that you don't actually know? One does not become the richest man in the world by being a, "hype dealer". He's not peddling FTX or Theranos.

I've read enough in tech to know that Musk is both a genius and a madman. I know enough history to realize that all hugely-successful men and women are "mad" in some fashion.

With as much hope as I have that Twitter and its ilk (ex. Reddit) burn to the ground, I know that it's much too early to be making judgments on whether or not his ownership can be coined a success or failure.

theCapraAegagrus wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 2:06 pm

Adamthinks wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:44 pm It's been crystal clear since that cave incident that Musk is completely full of crap, doesn't really know what he's doing, and is mostly a hype dealer.

Are you really this convicted to judging someone that you don't actually know? One does not become the richest man in the world by being a, "hype dealer". He's not peddling FTX or Theranos.

The stock price that makes him that wealthy is entirely predicated on hype. You'll see. He's nowhere close to a genius. Though I get that the hype can be enthralling for some.

Actually, yes, you can become very very rich being a hype dealer. I see little evidence that he is a genius - he is a gambler for sure.

First he took 30mil that he had from his fathers emerald mine and put it into paypal - and when that was sold to ebay he made 180mil which he dumped into his next gamble (tesla) - all so he could gamble on his real love, Mars.

Along the way he has promised quite a bit that he hasn’t delivered, and has gained a following that helped him pump Tesla stock way past its true value. In the end, he is playing at the table with money that he is willing to lose on long odds.

Musk quote:

“It’s all like a series of poker games, and now I’ve gone to a higher-stake poker game and carry those chips with me. I’ve spent almost all of those chips back in the new game.”

Discussion of his ego, and how that may work for or against him in the end, is another fine topic for discussion.

Adamthinks wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 2:14 pm ...He's nowhere close to a genius...

Value is always what someone is willing to pay/trade. Without a smokescreen, it cannot be, "overvalued".

I would argue that thats not what value means, and I would also argue that Musk provides plenty of smokescreen

“the regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of something.”

“fair return or equivalent in goods, services, or money for something exchanged”

Market price is one possible definition, but I really don’t see an inappropriate market price as value, but as bloated and waiting for a fair valuation to hit it in the face.

For examples of “Price” vs “Market Price” and “Value” see the “ebay auctions posted by people on crack” thread

Should anyone purchase at those prices it is simply an error, not a proof of value. Finding another sucker to sell it to will not change that.

GandalfPC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 3:14 pm I would argue that thats not what value means, and I would also argue that Musk provides plenty of smokescreen

“the regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of something.”

“fair return or equivalent in goods, services, or money for something exchanged”

Market price is one possible definition, but I really don’t see an inappropriate market price as value, but as bloated and waiting for a fair valuation to hit it in the face.

For examples of “Price” vs “Market Price” and “Value” see the “ebay auctions posted by people on crack” thread

Should anyone purchase at those prices it is simply an error, not a proof of value. Finding another sucker to sell it to will not change that.

You're just randomly choosing how you want to label Tesla's stock rate, which quite frankly only matters to you. There's no discussion to be had there, because it has evaluated financial value. Again, Tesla is not FTX or Theranos. They're not peddling imagination; They produce real products.

Calling it an "error" is an opinion, not versed in investing. I wonder if you stick to the principles outlined here, and don't invest in the stock market.

Tesla had a P/E ratio of well over 100 - which means that at its profit level it would have taken well over 100 years to be worth its selling price. i am not randomly choosing my label - it was overvalued

P/E of 10 is where normality lies - 20 is acceptably bullish - over 100 is nuts.

“According to Tesla's latest financial reports and stock price the company's current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 47.1099. At the end of 2021 the company had a P/E ratio of 190.”

Holy carp - it actually hit 190 - thats so far into the insane range I can hardly believe it - I was thinking it hit 140s max

“Tesla's p/e ratio for fiscal years ending December 2017 to 2021 averaged 284.3x”

Some of that was in the early speculation range - where P/E can be quite high, so I won’t make a judgement on it without doing more analysis - but it does show just how speculative it was

Now that it has lost a ton of value recently it still sits near 50 - still way too high (Industry is around 13 I believe at the moment - Tesla should be under 30, at least)

I used to work for several large stock and commodities brokers by the way - I don’t do much trading myself, but still enjoy the analysis.

With other companies moving into the EV space Tesla has been under pressure - and that was foreseeable

The label genius gets slapped on way too many people. People who consider people like Elon Musk, Bill Gates or Steve Jobs geniuses have way too low standards for that label.

I can certainly agree with that - genius starts at about IQ 150 - musk claims his is 155 (though no proof ever provided) - and 150 is plenty smart - but it isn’t what most people really consider genius like Hawking, Einstein and Jobs (although theirs are estimated at a mere 160 or a touch higher)

“While 10 IQ points might not seem like a huge deal, it's the equivalent of not having slept the night before“ or so they say


Newton estimated at 190+

Mine is 151, and I ain’t no genius.


Other interesting IQ info:

“Researchers have found that the average IQ of dogs is about 100. When compared to humans, this IQ is similar to the intelligence of two-year-old human toddlers. In general, studies have shown that canines have the smarts of children anywhere from 2 to 2.5 years of age.“

“An adult with an IQ of 70 is smarter than the average 2–1/2 year old.”

“Scores are roughly the same because kids are measured against kids their own age. However, fluid intelligence increases through childhood. IQ scores were originally based on mental age, which corresponds roughly to the SD15 statistical scoring used today — The formula was mental age/physical age* 100.”

Wait? Einstein and Hawking are lumped together with Jobs? What are you smoking?

Just lumping together the 160 IQ range - it is obvious that simple IQ measure really doesn’t imply overall intelligence or ability - the mind is more complex than that measure and the way you apply yourself counts as well. IQ is somewhat a measure of muscle mass or flexibility rather than proficiency in a particular sport.

Edison’s IQ is estimated between 160 and 310 by some - thats quite the guesstimate I see some putting it at 145 as well.

And with IQ tests being biased there seems to be little reason to use them as a ladder or a crutch.


Here is one list: They have Jimmy Carter at 156…

https://academictips.org/interesting-fa ... us-people/

One commenter there reminds us “Thomas Edison who was supposed to have stated that genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.”

And Abraham Lincoln reminded us to "Don't believe everything on the internet", hahaha.

GandalfPC wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:52 am i am not randomly choosing my label - it was overvalued

No, you're still randomly choosing how you want to label it. Edit: I also don't care anymore.

Harvonsgard wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:09 pm The label genius gets slapped on way too many people. People who consider people like Elon Musk, Bill Gates or Steve Jobs geniuses have way too low standards for that label.

You're the authority on what constitutes a genius now?

Who else?

How is the playing card market doing? I haven't bought anything second-hand in a long time.

I know big comic books that got a bump over the past couple years have seen 30-35% drops, such as The Amazing Spider-Man #1.

It's hard to say. Lots more people selling, but there seems to be a lot more buyers as well. Using Fontaines, A1WW and other cardistry brands as a gauge. Then again, KWP's increased output, demand for the big name designers also seem to show that demand is still there. Kickstarter seems to be full of projects from new designers. More meh and average than good ones; but still.

My theory is that this hobby; with all 3 main branches of collectors, magicians and cardists have seen a recent boom after 2+ yrs of pandemic lockdown. With little to do but trawl youtube and other social media, I won't be surprised if that lead to the recent increase. USPCC doing their own Card Con recently would seem to support that theory. Also it seems that more creators have turned to patreon or their own subscriber program in the past 2 years.

However, only the retailers are able to give us a better picture in terms of actual sales of both big name brands and basic decks. I would love it if a retailer or someone related to the business would comment on this ( someone like Sherman)

USA made the worst trade I've ever seen in basketball history...

Going to have to agree with you, there.

Also... who all's planning to see the new Avatar movie? Let's hear a full report! (I'm curious, but not curious enough to go...)

I'm not into CGI-Pocahontas that much but still curious if the hype is worth it so, seeing - yes; going to the movies - no.

I plan on watching it at the Pacific Science Center on a giant IMAX screen. This is definitely a film that needs to be seen on a giant 3D screen.

The Avatar sequel is an easy pass for me. However, I will check it out on home video for this reason:

I've been told that the frame rate exceeds 24 FPS.

A long time ago I wondered; What frame rate do movies play at, and why? The verdict was: Movies don't play above 24 FPS because that's what soap operas use for their distinct look, and it isn't very 'cinematic'.* So, that makes me very curious to see how Avatar turns out, visually (which is all it really had going for it in the first place).

*Cost is the original reason, but not the reason that artists still use the same frame rate.

theCapraAegagrus wrote: ↑Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:01 pm (which is all it really had going for it in the first place).

This .

Early reviews of the new Avatar are positive, which blows my mind. I really expected it to just be more of the same. Supposedly, the visuals are far better than the original, and this time, there's actually character development. Believe it when I see it, but I guess I will see it before too long.

Hey, @Adamthinks, if you're going after the 23rd, maybe we should coordinate! We can watch the movie and then talk cards!

Any other Seattle-area folks interested in some kind of get-together during the holiday season?

rousselle wrote: ↑Mon Dec 12, 2022 5:28 pm Early reviews of the new Avatar are positive, which blows my mind.

Most of the people watching this early are likely to be fans of the first one, so that's not surprising.

New Avatar is a dumpster fire in regards to logic, storytelling and suspense. I would say it was a waste of time but having certainty about how whack and overrated this whole franchise is, is worth something.